Will the advent of AI lead to a job crisis?
All significant innovations by man have caused dramatic changes to the job market. But did it lead to a job crisis, no they did not? To substantiate the statement, let us take the example of computers in India. When computers became mainstream, there was outcry all over the country. Political parties conducted rallies, smashed computers, burned them, and whatnot. Computers were portrayed as a tool for the capitalists to take over. But what has happened? Yes, many jobs have disappeared, but now India is on the path to becoming a global IT superpower. The plethora of new opportunities created and the subsequent change in the economic condition of the country is incredible.
This has happened over and over throughout history. But does that mean it is always going to be like this? AI is touted to bring the next revolution to human civilization. And how it will pan out will be drastically different. AI goes beyond automating rudimentary asks. It gives computers the power to learn. What happens when a computer becomes smarter than an average human?
Let us look at two examples to understand the impact.
Ant group (formerly called Ant Finance and Ali pay) is the world’s most valuable fintech company, with a valuation of above 200 billion USD. It is poised to raise up to $34.4 billion in the world’s largest stock market debut. Unlike traditional banks, investment institutions, and insurance companies, Ant Financial is built on a digital core. There are no workers in its “critical path” of operating activities. AI runs the show. There are no humans involved, for approving loans, authorizing consumer medical expenses, or for providing financial advice. And without the operating constraints that limit traditional firms, Ant Financial can compete in unprecedented ways and achieve unbridled growth and impact across a variety of industries.
The next company is one of the powerhouses of AI research and development. Open AI was founded in 2015 by tech visionaries Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and others, with the stated goal of promoting and developing friendly AI in a way that benefits humanity as a whole. They recently released the third-generation language prediction model in the GPT-n series, the GPT-3. An AI capable of creating music, of writing legal papers, to code query languages, programming languages and even ML models. And it is said that we have only scratched the surface of its capabilities.
I believe the world is at the brink of an unprecedented change like never before. Jobs may become a choice, a hobby and not a means of survival. AI will replace artists, engineers, teachers and every job out there. Without a working-class, there will not be a consumer class; currency and business will have no meaning. We can end up in a world where everything is provided, an era of global prosperity that has always eluded us. But technology alone cannot help us attain this goal. It only gives us the means; our choices will shape the outcome. The present world is a very unfair and selfish place. Half of the population still struggles to afford a meal, whereas the ultra-rich spends million in pursuit of worldly pleasures. If we carry on these choices forward, if we do not change, the magnitude of the differences will be even greater. And I would call that a crisis, or even a dystopia.
